January
27, 2005
The Diesel's World - Exit polls less accurate than Enron ledgers, more accurate
than NBA referees
The following is taken from Mark Memmot's article in the USA TODAY:
"EXIT POLLS MOST INACCURATE SINCE 1988 - The exit polls of voters on Election Day so overstated Sen. John Kerry support that they rank as the most inaccurate in a presidential election since at least 1988, the firms who did the work conceded Wednesday. The exit polls, which are supposed to help the major TV networks shape their coverage on election night, were sharply criticized after the election. Leaks of preliminary data from the polls showed up on the Internet in the early afternoon of Election Day, fueling speculation that Kerry was about to defeat President Bush. After the election, some political scientists, pollsters, and journalists questioned the polls' value. To curb leaks in the future, news organizations have agreed to withhold distribution of the poll information within their businesses until later in the day, instead of releasing data earlier in the cycle."
The Diesel's Position:
Exit
polls are akin to shaking your Christmas gifts to help determine what's inside.
While it is tempting to guess what you're getting, it's always better to wait
and know for sure. Although, in fairness to the shakers, the accuracy for
gift shaking was markedly better than last year's exit polls.
If elections were determined by exit poll results, the long arduous task of counting each and every vote could be forgotten. This would allow us more time to enjoy that week's episode of Survivor instead of listening to "special guest" Michael Moore rant about the latest public uprising that never materializes. Since exit polls are nothing more than a guesstamate, they should come with the following warning label: "Please do not use these results to elect anyone or pass any propositions. They are for entertainment purposes only. May cause drowsiness and nausea."
In retrospect, there was no value to the Bush-Kerry exit polls other than to embarrass the professional prognosticators who had to say something during their 20-hour election coverage marathons. For the sake of argument, lets assume that exit polls are always more precise than pi carried out to 100 places. Interestingly enough, other than to provide as a kick-start to election parties, the value of an exit poll, with Big Blue accuracy, remains negligible. Despite the accuracy, or for "realists" the inaccuracy of the exit polls, the result is still the same once the polls close, regardless of exit poll findings, Halloween mask sales, and the winner of the Redskins-Packers game. Since accurate exit poll numbers are of little real value, then assigning a Blue Ribbon commission to improve their accuracy is a poor use of a Blue Ribbon Commission. Blue Ribbon Commissions can be better utilized working on recommendations for Global Warming, Indian Gaming, and Investigative News Shows.
Despite the irrelevance of exit polls, they are sure to be back in 2008 telling us who is about to be elected only to warn us that the numbers have a wide margin for error. News shows will report the numbers as though they are gospel and they will all still mean nothing until the final vote is counted. Like Steven Seagal would say "That's Coo-Coo Crazy."