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September 21, 2005: NFL Commentary, Week 2
By White Russian

Seven Teams in Desperation Mode?
There is way too much emphasis placed on teams being down 0 and 2 to start the season. To listen to the experts one would think that any team that starts with two losses in the first two games is a virtual lock to miss the playoffs. And the numbers they throw out are impressive - in the last 15 seasons, 121 teams have started 0 and 2. Of those 121, only 17 teams (14%) went on to make it into the playoffs. What they all fail to mention, however, is that chances are high that those teams that are starting 0 and 2 are not very good teams in the first place. Much of the time (probably around 86% of the time) these are teams that had no realistic chance of making the playoffs when the season started. It should not be surprising when teams that lose the first two games continue to struggle throughout the season. The teams that fail to improve do not suddenly become bad teams just because they lost a few games - they were already bad to begin with.

This topic comes up every season, as each week we hear how low the chances are for the remaining winless teams to get to the playoffs. This season the winless seven are Baltimore, Houston, San Diego, Oakland, Minnesota, Green Bay, and Arizona. Any of the teams can turn it around simply by winning their next two games. And just how desperate can things be for teams like Minnesota and Green Bay when the division leaders are Chicago and Detroit, just one game ahead?

In week 7 of last season, the BMTG made a determination that all of the silly pronouncements and numbers ought to be thrown out based on what the Red Sox did to the Yankees in the 2004 American League Championship Series. No team shall be considered out of the playoff race until mathematically eliminated.

Philadelphia - San Francisco
In the first half Tim Rattay had more completions to Philadelphia players (3) than to his own team (2). The question still stands - why didn't top draft pick Alex Smith start the second half of a game that was over in the first minute? Smith eventually came in, but not until there were only 3 minutes and 43 seconds left in the game.

New York's Home Road Game
Calling New Orleans trip to New York a home game for the Saints is a complete farce. This was a Giants home game through and through. No home team ever has to deal with the amount of crowd noise New Orleans had to face. If you are going to go ahead and play the game in New York, then call it what it is and officially show that the Giants have nine home games, the Saints have seven home games, and the rest of the league has the standard eight home games. If you insist on calling it a Saints home game, then at the very least hold the game at a neutral site, preferably closer to New Orleans than New York. Equally nauseating as calling the game a home game for the Saints was watching Robin Roberts, Regis Philbin, and Tony Danza listen to themselves talk during the hurricane telethon.

Mike Martz Revisited
Last season the BMTG chronicled the week to week coaching by Mike Martz of the St. Louis Rams in order to determine if the excessive criticism typically leveled at him was actually justified. After following his moves the whole season, the BMTG concluded that there was enough evidence to declare that the criticism is warranted. Despite his continued incompetence, Martz is still the head coach of the Rams and the BMTG is following up one year later to see if he has improved after receiving the BMTG’s open letter. This week's analysis:

Although the Rams struggled in their victory over the now 0 and 2 Arizona Cardinals, Brother Nature felt that Martz did much better than in week 1. The announcers criticized Martz for not challenging a sideline call, but B. Nature had no complaints.

Joe Theismann States the Obvious (Again)
Theismann's quote went something like this: "If he get called for taunting, Tom Coughlin is not going to be happy." The next shot after the official announce the taunting penalty was a red-faced Coughlin screaming at the officials.

Return of the Meaningless Injury Report?
The injury report has long been useless, as teams do not accurately report injuries and the only people even looking at the report are people in fantasy leagues. The BMTG will attempt to examine the actual usefulness of the injury report by looking at the report released on Wednesday and comparing it to what actually happens in the games. A doubtful status means that a player has a 75% chance of sitting out, questionable is supposed to be 50%, and probable is 25%.

Last week the report on NFL.com listed 73 players as questionable, 55 as probable, 10 as doubtful, and 20 as out. Here is the breakdown:

	Probable	Questionable	Doubtful	Out
# of Players Listed	55	73	10	20
# of Players who did not play	6	40	10	20
% of Players who did not play	11%	55%	100%	100%
% of Players expected to not play	25%	50%	75%	100%

One week is too small of a sample size to make any conclusions. Stay tuned...

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