September 28, 2005: NFL
Commentary, Week 3
By White Russian
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More Useless Stats
One of the most common of the useless stats is the one about how bad a team's
playoff chances are for all of the winless teams in the league. Last week
there were seven winless teams and the numbers show that only 14% of teams
that start 0 and 2 make it to the playoffs. Of the seven, two teams had a
bye week and two teams won their first game, leaving three teams at the even
more desperate 0 and 3 - Oakland, Green Bay, and Arizona. With their win,
San Diego is only one game out of first place in their division, with 13 games
to go. With that first victory they have gone from desperation after starting
0 and 2, to back in the playoff race. The other team to win their first game,
Minnesota, is suddenly only a half game out of the lead in their division.
The numbers on what percentage of teams make it to the playoffs are useless in that they only state the obvious - that teams that don't win games are not very good and will have a hard time getting to the playoffs, but once in a while a good team will struggle at the beginning of the season and recover to play to their capability.
This week's useless stat comes from Sunday Night Football's Mike Patrick, who said late in the Giants - Chargers game after the Chargers had recovered a fumble, "And the Chargers defense has forced at least one turnover in 15 straight games - that is the second longest streak in the NFL - second only to Cleveland." The stat is useless because you can not form any solid conclusion from it, and the only conclusion you might draw from it is misleading. The implication is that the Chargers and Browns defenses must be very good to sustain such a streak, but the reality is that neither team is considered to have a particularly good defense and certainly no teams are afraid of either defense.
Is Dick Vermeil a Cry Baby?
In what has become a story where there shouldn't be a story, Kansas City Chiefs
coach Dick Vermeil is upset that Denver's Champ Bailey, while miked up on
the field, said that the Chiefs were not playing hard during their Monday
night game.
First, what Bailey said, while talking to his teammates on the Denver sideline during the first half:
"The way they played up there in Kansas City, it ain't the same, though. They're playing a little different. They're not playing as hard. I ain't going to relax, though."
And
Vermeil's reaction:
"I know this -- none of our players said Champ Bailey didn't play hard when we beat them by three touchdowns last year out here. Eddie Kennison didn't say that Champ Bailey was not playing hard."
"Champ Bailey's a fine kid, respected by everybody in the league. But you put a mike on him, you never know what you're going to hear. You catch some things guys say in frustration, and you use them to enhance the broadcast. But sometimes that embarrasses the player."
"I think we can play better than that. I think we can play harder than that. I don't know if Champ Bailey said that to evaluate."
Champ Bailey did nothing wrong and correctly did not feel the need to apologize. He did not say anything that he should feel embarrassed about. And in fact, Vermeil ultimately agreed with Bailey's assessment that the Chiefs players could have played harder. This is a non-story that has only made headlines because Vermeil was whining about it. Perhaps Vermeil is searching for a way to motivate his team, although it is difficult to imagine what could motivate a team if playing on Monday night against a division rival is not enough to do it.
Mike Martz Revisited
Last season the BMTG chronicled the week to week coaching by Mike Martz of
the St. Louis Rams in order to determine if the excessive criticism typically
leveled at him was actually justified. After following his moves the whole
season, the BMTG concluded that there was enough evidence to declare that
the criticism is warranted. Despite his continued incompetence, Martz is still
the head coach of the Rams and the BMTG is following up one year later to
see if he has improved after receiving the BMTG’s open
letter. This week's analysis:
For the second week in a row, Brother Nature has no complaints about the performance of Mike Martz. He felt that there was a good mix of running and passing plays. It is still early, but Martz's track record after three games is clearly much better than last year.
Return of the Meaningless Injury Report?
The injury report has long been useless, as teams do not accurately report
injuries and the only people even looking at the report are people in fantasy
leagues. The BMTG will attempt to examine the actual usefulness of the injury
report by looking at the report released on Wednesday and comparing it to
what actually happens in the games. A doubtful status means that a player
has a 75% chance of sitting out, questionable is supposed to be 50%, and probable
is 25%.
Here is this week's breakdown:
| Probable |
Questionable |
Doubtful |
Out |
|
| # of Players Listed | 35 |
80 |
10 |
20 |
| # of Players who did not play | 2 |
33 |
10 |
20 |
| % of Players who did not play | 6% |
41% |
100% |
100% |
| % of Players expected to not play | 25% |
50% |
75% |
100% |
And the total so far on this season (only two weeks worth)...
| Probable |
Questionable |
Doubtful |
Out |
|
| # of Players Listed | 90 |
153 |
20 |
40 |
| # of Players who did not play | 8 |
73 |
20 |
40 |
| % of Players who did not play | 9% |
48% |
100% |
100% |
| % of Players expected to not play | 25% |
50% |
75% |
100% |
While it is still early to make conclusions, it is notable that so far no player listed as "doubtful" has played, while the vast majority of those listed as "probable" have played.
More
interesting is the individual team tendencies, such as New England. In two
weeks, the Patriots have listed a total of 24 players on their injury lists.
Of those 24, 22 were listed as questionable, and 2 as probable. The two probables
were Tom Brady in both weeks. The percentage of questionable New England players
who did not play (55%) is in line with what you would expect, but the numbers
may suggest that New England has a tendency to just list everyone at questionable
even though they probably know which players are most likely to sit.
Fantasy Notes
Last season, Brother Nature did
not have Daunte Culpepper for the first two weeks, but added him for week
3. This year, B. Nature did the opposite and dropped Culpepper for week 3.
Last year, the combination of dropping Rich Gannon and adding Culpepper netted
Brother Nature 534 points. This year, after two terrible weeks to open the
season, Culpepper had the best performance at quarterback in week 3 with 536
points. The move was not a complete loss for Brother Nature, as his replacement,
Ben Roethlisberger had a good week with 338 points.
Two
weeks ago, when Brother Nature opted to stay with Hines Ward after an opening
week of only 52 points, The Diesel predicted that it could be an egregious
error to stay with Ward when he could go for Nate Burleson or Plaxico Burress.
In the two weeks since, Ward has had weeks of 300 and 348 points, while Burress
went for 138 and 174, and Burleson had 102 points in week 2 and did not play
in week 3.
LaDainian Tomlinson had the best performance to date with his 192 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing, 3 receptions for 28 yards, and a touchdown pass of 26 yards.
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