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October 5, 2005: NFL Commentary, Week 4
By White Russian

And Then There Were Two
The final two winless teams are Green Bay at 0 and 4 and Houston at 0 and 3. Green Bay's division, the NFC North, is so bad, however, that Green Bay is only 1 1/2 games out of first place. Houston, on the other hand is 3 1/2 games behind Indianapolis. While we no longer have to endure endless talk of how low their chances are for making the post season, we will probably have to endure a full season's worth of endless talk about Brett Favre.

Gambling Conservative
Phil Simms claims to be conservative in his approach to the game, and yet, based on his analysis during the San Diego - New England game, you would think he wants to go for it on fourth down in almost any situation.

In the first quarter, with the score tied at zero, San Diego marches to the 25 yard line and faces 4th and 1 after getting stuffed for no yards on 3rd and 1. San Diego lines up to go for it and Simms says there is no doubt you should go for it here. San Diego tries to draw New England offsides and calls timeout when they don't take the bait. Kaeding kicks a 42 yard field goal for the first points of the day. After commercial Jim Nantz questions Simms about his comment on there being no doubt San Diego should go for it. Simms says, "Jim, I'm conservative - you know that. I would have gone for it because it's early in the game. You can overcome a mistake if you don't make it. And the fact is I think you just need to take the opportunity to score as many points as possible against this New England offense."

His reasoning is not conservative, does not follow conventional wisdom, and makes no rational sense. In a scoreless game in the first quarter it is important to get any points you can. The risk of not making it on 4th down does not outweigh the benefit of making it. If you do not make it, you end up with no points and the other team is that much more pumped up.

In the second quarter, with San Diego leading 17 to 14 (note the 3 point lead thanks to the first quarter field goal), New England faces 4th and inches on the 50 yard line. Here is the exchange between Nantz and Simms:

NANTZ: "I don't know - will they go for it here?"
SIMMS (immediately and without doubt): "I think so."

San Diego calls timeout. New England goes for it and gets the first down.

NANTZ: "That didn't surprise you - them going for it at midfield - 4th and inches?"
SIMMS: "Not at all. Bill Belichick - I know, you look at him and you think, 'Oh, he won't gamble.' But he is a gambler."

New England ended up with a field goal on the drive to tie the game. I understand why you would go for it, especially with it being 4th and inches as opposed to 4th and a full yard, but the decision is not as automatic as Simms makes it sound. With the ball on the 50, not making it would put San Diego in excellent field position while a well-placed punt could pin the Chargers down inside the ten yard line. I agree with the decision to go for it in this case, but the point is that Simms seems to give no other alternative any thought. When faced with 4th down he immediately just wants to go for it - contrary to his self-proclaimed conservative tendencies.

Fox Thinks Randy Johnson is a Baby
With Randy Johnson pitching against Tim Wakefield on Saturday, the Fox announcers made Johnson sound like the games biggest crybaby. Points made during the broadcast:

He was said to have to be "coddled" more than any other pitcher.
He has to have his own personal catcher (Flaherty) who can calm him down.
He got tossed from an important game in the 2nd inning for aguing the strike zone.
Whenever he would walk someone, a special point was made to show him glare at the umpire.
When the pitching coach would come out to talk to him and the entire infield came in to the mound, it was said that he needed 6 "shrinks" to deal with his perceived "shrinking" strike zone.
Every time Flaherty went to the mound himself, the only reason presented was that the mound visit was due to Johnson's fragile mental state.

So, is Randy Johnson a cry-baby? Fox always seems to shower the Yankees with love, so either Johnson ticked someone off, which is a distinct possibility, or he really is the most coddled and biggest cry baby in the league.

Mike Martz Revisited
Last season the BMTG chronicled the week to week coaching by Mike Martz of the St. Louis Rams in order to determine if the excessive criticism typically leveled at him was actually justified. After following his moves the whole season, the BMTG concluded that there was enough evidence to declare that the criticism is warranted. Despite his continued incompetence, Martz is still the head coach of the Rams and the BMTG is following up one year later to see if he has improved after receiving the BMTG’s open letter. This week's analysis:

Despite the thrashing the Rams took at the hand of the Giants, Brother Nature saw no big blunders by Martz. The offense just couldn't get going and the defense had no answer to Eli Manning being in a groove. Martz did admit that he made a mistake when they ran a reverse on third down that resulted in a crucial turnover. Martz said that Marshall Faulk is supposed to be in the game for that play, but by his oversight, Steven Jackson was in on the play instead. Steven Jackson took full responsibility for the turnover, saying that he should be able to execute the play.

While it has become fashionable to blast Martz for all the Rams' ills, after one quarter of the season, it appears that the continued criticism that is still thrown at Martz is not justified this year.

Return of the Meaningless Injury Report?
The injury report has long been useless, as teams do not accurately report injuries and the only people even looking at the report are people in fantasy leagues. The BMTG will attempt to examine the actual usefulness of the injury report by looking at the report released on Wednesday and comparing it to what actually happens in the games. A doubtful status means that a player has a 75% chance of sitting out, questionable is supposed to be 50%, and probable is 25%.

Here is this week's breakdown:

	Probable	Questionable	Doubtful	Out
# of Players Listed	64	77	10	30
# of Players who did not play	9	43	10	30
% of Players who did not play	14%	56%	100%	100%
% of Players expected to not play	25%	50%	75%	100%

And the total so far on this season (only three weeks worth)...

	Probable	Questionable	Doubtful	Out
# of Players Listed	154	230	30	70
# of Players who did not play	17	116	30	70
% of Players who did not play	11%	50%	100%	100%
% of Players expected to not play	25%	50%	75%	100%

Dallas and Miami have listed the fewest number of players on the injury reports, with only three players listed thus far. All three of the Dallas players did not play (all listed as questionable), while all three Miami players did play (2 listed as probable, 1 as questionable). On the other end of the spectrum, Indianapolis has listed the most players (37), followed by New England (35). While Indianapolis has used all categories (11 probable, 10 questionable, 4 doubtful, and 12 out), New England primarily lists all their players as questionable (3 probable, 30 questionable, 2 out).

Fantasy Notes and Egregious Errors
Both Manning brothers had huge games, but neither one was on a roster.

Brother Nature had Plaxico Burress for his monster receiving game (204 yards, 2 touchdowns), but would he have had Burress if Hines Ward was not on a bye week?

The following Egregious Errors were proposed:

Steamboy - 1 for not submitting a Last Man Standing Team, 1 for playing T. Jones, M. Muhammad, and the Chicago Defense in their bye week (no roster was submittted, so week 3 roster was used)

Tin Man - 1 for naming Kurt Warner his number one quarterback. Warner is injured (listed as "out" on the injury report) and did not play, marking the first time this season the rankings were used to fill an injured position. Since Warner was out, Plummer was added to Tin Man's roster (at 90% of his points). Had Tin Man used the Arizona quarterback who played in Warner's place (Josh McCown) as his number one, he could have had 545.6 points (496 points plus 49.6 points as the 10% bonus). Instead he gets Plummer at 90%, which turns out to be 212.4 points.

Sandman - 1 for his annual self-imposed sanction after dropping Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Randy Moss in favor of Jake Delhomme, Darrell Jackson, and Terry Glenn. Manning (496), Harrison (356), and Moss (254) combined for 1106 points, while Jackson (184) and Glenn (132) have combined for 316 points with Delhomme going tonight. It would take a 790 point game by Delhomme to get back to even.

Naturally, the three owners in question had excuses ranging from flimsy to whiny. The Egregious Error tally is not official until there has been a final vote.

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